Evidence For and Against
There are hints of success in the mountain of data being collected. There are also plenty of valid criticisms of the experiment to date. I will try to summarize them here. First, we will look at the graphs from each cell. Then we'll look at the arguments about the interpretation. And finally, we'll talk about the plan to clarify it.
Graphs - 15 minute averages for the last two weeks (since the last power adjustment)
Cell 1.0
The T_Glassout sensor does not show an up trend. In fact, it shows a drop off.
Cell 1.1
If we zoom in after the adjustment we see the weekend rise.
And now the extra sensors for cell 1.1
T_F2 is on the top flange. T_G1, T_G2, and T_G3 are glass temperatures. Almost all of these sensors show an initial event between the 28th and 30th and then quite a bit of noise before an uptrend this weekend.
Serious criticisms against this being real excess heat:
Honestly, all the great input has been like drinking from a fire hose. Forgive me if I miss anybody's contribution. If I do miss your idea, please re-suggest it.
- Small (if any) change to T_Glass out - As is pretty obvious, the T_glass_out sensor is not showing the same rise in temperature that the internal temperatures are on cell 1.0. On cell 1.1, we had to troubleshoot the sensor a bit.
- Ascoli65's pressure compensation - Ascoli has made a pressure compensation formula that seems to level out the P_xs line nicely. Because of the lack of change in excess glass temperature to correspond to the interior temperature, this is a very plausible explanation and a nice piece of work. I would like to see somebody fit that pressure difference to a thermal conductivity value, but I'm not sure what to do about the convection part.
- David Roberson's heat up curve fit - While we have not had any power steps to fit his model to, lately, judging from the last one and the final temperature, he was not seeing excess power. Of course, he was using the exterior temperature and it is clear that it is not rising much.
Arguments for real excess heat:
Evidence of sustained temperature rises on almost all sensors on cell 1.1 - There was a bump of temperatures right after we upped the power between Jan 28th and Jan 30th. Then there was a gentle temperature rise this last weekend. Can anybody spot a reason those might not be excess energy?
Offsets of T_Glassout thermocouples - we have some doubts about the reliability of the thermal contact of those sensors. We had to trouble shoot it last week on cell 1.1. On cell 1.0 it just a piece of kapton tape holding it in place. On that cell, as soon as we put the active wire in and reattached the sensor, that sensor started reporting almost 10C cooler at full power. We decided to go ahead with the test, anyway, since we couldn't figure out why it had acquired that offset and we were using the interior sensors for the power calculation.
Calibration at 0.5 bar in hydrogen was done in 3 runs starting at 12/21/2012. You can examine the google spreadsheets here for cell 1.0 and here for cell 1.1.
Thank you Alan G for sharing the graph of that data. They are extremely close and at this power level, the calibration was done at .91 bar, which we crossed not too long ago and definitely after the internal temperatures started to rise.
These calibration results are what lead us to decide to use the interior temperatures for the P_xs calculation. It looked to be a cleaner correlation and to not vary much at all over the desired working pressure range.
How does Ascoli's pressure compensation fit here? My personal hypothesis is that it may be fitting the change in gas composition over time, instead of the change in Hydrogen density.
Ryan's Hypothesis
I suspect that the gas composition changing. We suspect the H2 is leaking out. Are O2 and N2 leaking in and decreasing thermal conductivity? Would the air leak into the cell based on partial pressure even if the pressure of hydrogen was higher? Would that be a risk with any long term test, especially if the cell had a known leak?
Next steps:
- Cool down and restart - does it come back, or not? What pressure does it come back to? How does it fit David Roberson's curve predictor?
- Refresh the H2 - Cool down, vacuum clean, and reload to 0.5 bar clean Hydrogen.
-What other suggestions are there before we do it tomorrow?
And a good link: Check out http://chavascience.com/hydrogen-2/thermal-transfer and the pages around it for some excellent info and component calculations for modeling the Celani Cell.
And the MFMP has a new friend, so go check out his blog:
Dear MFMP,
My name is Dr Bob
I am promoting creative thinking and green energy technologies through my blog and news portal. www.drboblog.com
Can you guys hold a secret??
I am actually a recarnation of Martin Fleischmann cloned in the future and sent back through time to save the world from pollution and corruption.
Obviously its very important for me that you succeed with your work since you are promoting my technology.
I have posted a challenge to you on my latest blog post related to donations....
Answer me through my blog if you Dare or I will haunt you forever!!!
With Respect / Dr Bob
I love a good sense of humor ;)
And a bonus observation:
This graph shows some of the strange and dynamic things that this system does from time to time. This is fresh off the server. What do you make of it?
Comments
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di questi casi potrebbe trattarsi di Dove giocare al casinò?
(Genevieve: Maps.Google.it/.../....
If you try to read this blog and the specifications of the experiment, you will find the we are not running on AC power !
This also make me wonder about the tests where it was claimed they were seeing 100x or more gains. Perhaps they were just running it at a higher frequency so that much more of the input power was not being measured by the average RMS meter.
not a general fact.
good team have replicated.
CEA Grenoble have replicated F&P with better calorimetry.
Toyota have replicated Mitsubishi.
Cnam have replicated mizuno.
NASA 2008 have replicated Nasa 89, after Tsinghua replicated NASA89.
NASA89 was judged as a failure because expecting waht should not be expected (neutrons), yet it was a hidden success.
It seems key factor are first goodwill and desire to find, which lead to effort, learning curve, acceptation of facts... or course finally competence, budget and luck count too... but they are linked, often consequence of will, as usual . Contrary to the legend, science is very human.
The Swedish team used true rms input power measurements while, it's possible the ecat team used average rms measurements for the input power up to that point. I'll let you research the difference between the two.
Hi, guys,
Whas sup, with these Swiss folks, they just don't get it, about lenr or anything else, they pue poed, Dr. Rossi's work, and couldn't take measurements correctly, now another bunch says they cant find any excess energy, and now these guys are trying to make the old Carnot effect, deliver electricity, what next, it like a Chinese fire drill,--- lol
So what you're basically saying is STMicroelectron ics is NOT a " professional, well funded, reputable organization"
Sigh, some people are very difficult to please.
It's something I gleaned from listening to one of the talks about the e-cat from the man himself, and heard the term "triple nickle" for the first time. Since there's quite a bit of misinformation on the web, I phrased it as "rumor".
I'm surprised that this recent experiment was run with the quality of the nickle as being "unknown". I guess everyone loves a good mystery though : )
There will be excuses made for this later failure. Just as there were excuses for the failure to replicate in 1989, excuses for why P&F weren't able to replicate during the 90's despite significant investment, excuses for why the Swedish team last year found a null result for the hotcat, and excuses for why this Swedish team found yet another null result. Only when a professional, well funded, reputable organization, above the garage lab level, obtains a non-Null result will LENR (if it even exists) move forward.
"Rumors of 99,9% pure Ni" implicit that Celani`s cell with Constantan won`t work at all?
Do you have any link to this "Rumors" ?
Thanks for the link, it was an interesting read : )
Rumor is that the nickle must be 99.9% pure for a reaction to take place. In the report that you referenced they may not have used pure nickle, matter of fact is they reported quality as "unknown". The rest of the tests used samples clearly not pure.
We try and keep up to date with all aspects - but no one can have eyes everywhere - that is the power of the crowd.
@Ascoli65
We have raised these points before and it has been discussed in our blog commentaries. It will be interesting to see the Loading / unloading resistance changes when there is only H2 and Vacuum between cycles in the Celani V2 protocol.
New blog posts coming soon about developments.
An Italian site has recently announced (1) that Celani has found an old but very interesting paper (2) on the oxidization behavior of constantan.
The experimental data show that constantan is subject to strong oxidation, and consequent large increase in resistivity, if heated over 350°C in air. On the contrary, oxidation does not take place in H2 atmosphere. This confirms that the different behavior of the constantan resistivity compared to that of Ni-Cr can be easily explained on the basis of oxidation/reduc tion of Cu contained therein, without appealing to the H2 loading/unloadi ng in the wire metal lattice.
The matter had been already debate on these pages a few months ago (3).
(1) 22passi.blogspot.it/.../...
(2) 22passi.it/.../...
(3) quantumheat.org/.../...
The swedish scientists from FMV did some experiments with nickle hydrogen and released a (negative) report:
www.lenr-forum.com/.../
Here the PDF of the report: lenrnews.eu/.../...
They saw no excess heat, but are open to start new experiments.
Do you think you could help them?
Greetings
barty
In my opinion, we need to determine whether or not there is excess power by ensuring that the hydrogen density is at the same levels for each comparison.
Perhaps it would be a good idea to perform a calibration at a defined pressure, or continue to use the latest one with the conditions that existed at that time. Then, we could use Ascoli's corrections on the internal heat readings to compare with my calculations on the outer glass.
I am concerned that there might be additional variables which we are not able to control. We need to measure larger values of excess power to gain confidence in the system.
We are preparing a lot at this time, bear with us!
Of course, I always appreciate a cell power down until cold followed by a power up sequence.
Could you report the status of the stainless cell and the calorimeter?
Keep up the good work guys, you are doing a fine job.
I have already answered David in # 65. I agree with him when he says that wire heating derives from gas leakage. It is also reasonable that this fact increases the fraction of radiated heat passing through the glass without heating it, but I have not personally verified. It should be recalled that only less than half of the irradiated heat goes toward the glass, the rest reaches the mica and a large portion (ca. 10%) is collected directly by the central rod. Probably most of this last heat reaches the 2 flanges. When the cell interior heats up, this heat flow increases, so reducing the heat flow through the glass.
Even if the cell is conceptually simple, there are several heat paths. The way the heat splits among them depends on many factors. Anyway, I agre with you, what happened until now can find plain explanations within the known physics, without necessarily having to assume the presence of excess heat.
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